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How the Chinese Stock Market Volatility Impacts Shoes - Footwear News

July 10, 2024 / no comments, on Fashion Advices

An investor watching the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index

The impact on the business will likely be seen only after the market finally levels out, with or without the government’s help.

Investors and market watchers seem convinced this is just the beginning of a more significant, and somewhat predicted, slowdown in China.

“There is a lot of volatility right now—whether its China or Greece,” said Priest. “And this is happening all at a time when our own economy is recovering.”

From the sourcing side, China is a key export market for shoes. Around 79 percent of all shoes imported to the U.S. last year were made in Chinese factories according to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America.

What this means for footwear is that for key growth markets outside of luxury, and in a country filled with a rapidly expanding middle class, consumer confidence is slipping and cash to spend is quickly disappearing as the stock market tumbles.

According to some market watchers, this bottom out may not entirely be a bad thing for the sourcing end.

The majority of the stock listings affected by the massive losses are smaller capped stocks, most of which have been invested in by smaller scale, middle class investors.

It also is a big indication of the long path ahead for China as it tries to build a consumer-spending based economy.

Matt Priest, the president of the FDRA agrees. He says many brands are already moving out of China and looking to diversify, so those left can capitalize on the markets.

“On a comparative basis, the numbers in China are stronger than others, but the rate of changes is slowing. There is a deceleration happening and the government is doing what it can to mitigate that,” said Lyon. “From the global perspective, China is a big source of demand for other nations. The concern is that if China is slowing to any degree, this is going to have an affect on other countries that have been benefiting of higher rates of growth from China.”

The bigger concern though is what the China slowdown means relative to the rest of the global economy.

“China is one of fastest growing international market for U.S. brands,” said Nate Hermann VP of International Trade of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. “If the stocks aren’t doing well, then the middle class is unable to buy our products.”

“The transition to go from an industrial to a consumer driven economy is a real long term investment,” said Camilo Lyon, an investor with Cannacord Genuity. “If you have a situation where people are facing steep losses because they weren’t paying attention to valuation but were chasing the run-up, it would impact their ability to spend.”

As the Shanghai Composite continued its downward spiral, many are asking if this is actually the bubble of exceptional growth bursting in China. And for footwear and apparel labels, the bursting is a big issue when it comes to capitalizing on the ever-important Chinese consumer.

“If you’re looking to China for growth, this could be an issue. If you’re just sourcing, it is probably a net benefit,” said Steve Marotta, analyst with CL King & Associates. “The contraction in the economy and instability economically is a benefit because [capacity use] in footwear factories would go down, then incremental pricing would go down too.”

While Greece may have dominated much of the headlines over the past few weeks, footwear and apparel businesses are sitting up and taking notice about the volatility of the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese government’s attempts to prop up prices.

Taking the rest of the Chinese economy into account, from GDP growth to increasing consumer spending, which has been reported to be at about 10 percent according to the Chinese government, the stock market is just one narrow component of China’s economy. The big question might actually be how much this continues to affect–whether in true monetary terms or in psychological ones–the rest of the economy.

In the past few weeks, the Chinese Shanghai Index has lost over $3.25 trillion, or about a third of its value, and that’s despite a rally on Thursday, that came after two days of losses and weeks on a downward slide.

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